The Boxoffice Tango
After kicking things off with a rather anemic Wednesday opening, King Kong managed, rather predictably, to oust The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe from the number one boxoffice spot last weekend. Interestingly, the Narnia film bounced back during this week as schools let out and the younger kids were looking for something to do with mommy and daddy's time...
So what will happen this weekend, as Christians focus on putting Christ back in Christmas? Will Narnia numbers sag again as fans of that other King go ape at the theaters?
One thing at least is clear. Though Narnia is doing well at the boxoffice, and the folks at Disney and Walden Media have got to be pretty happy with it's $200 million+ global take so far (and the news that China will allow the movie to be shown there next year), its boxoffice numbers are not tracking as well as the Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter franchises. Check out the latest Narnia figures at BoxOfficeMojo and compare with this graph of Rings performance at TheNumbers.
Will Narnia achieve blockbuster status, or will it merely be a solid hit? Our guess is the latter, and that it will settle in with about $240 million in the US, with only about $500 million total globally—maybe just barely enough to warrant a follow-up with a more modestly budgeted Prince Caspian. China boxoffice might just be the wildcard in this game.
(One footnote to this boxoffice tango. We know we promised we were done reporting on the "culture wars" angle to Narnia coverage, but we just can't resist referring readers to this very satirical response to Christian preoccupation with boxoffice numbers. Please understand—we're certainly not taking sides, but we do think this satire is not entirely misdirected...)
So what will happen this weekend, as Christians focus on putting Christ back in Christmas? Will Narnia numbers sag again as fans of that other King go ape at the theaters?
One thing at least is clear. Though Narnia is doing well at the boxoffice, and the folks at Disney and Walden Media have got to be pretty happy with it's $200 million+ global take so far (and the news that China will allow the movie to be shown there next year), its boxoffice numbers are not tracking as well as the Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter franchises. Check out the latest Narnia figures at BoxOfficeMojo and compare with this graph of Rings performance at TheNumbers.
Will Narnia achieve blockbuster status, or will it merely be a solid hit? Our guess is the latter, and that it will settle in with about $240 million in the US, with only about $500 million total globally—maybe just barely enough to warrant a follow-up with a more modestly budgeted Prince Caspian. China boxoffice might just be the wildcard in this game.
(One footnote to this boxoffice tango. We know we promised we were done reporting on the "culture wars" angle to Narnia coverage, but we just can't resist referring readers to this very satirical response to Christian preoccupation with boxoffice numbers. Please understand—we're certainly not taking sides, but we do think this satire is not entirely misdirected...)
posted by Greg Wright at 23.12.05
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