Prince Caspian Rumors

A January 9 article in Variety has fanned the flames of rumors about Prince Caspian getting the greenlight from Walden Media. First, there was a now-removed posting on one of the Walden Media message boards claiming that Adamson had signed a deal, and that has been followed by rumblings that Adamson is, in fact, out. Who knows?

Two curious things about this whole scenario: First, neither Disney nor Walden Media has issued any kind of press release about the status of a sequel to The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe—despite the fact that the film now stands a chance of becoming the studio's highest grossing live-action film in history, taking over that honor from The Sixth Sense. (Never mind that the Narnia film, heavy as it is in the special-effects department fits in some never-never land between animation and live-action, or the fact that the budget for The Sixth Sense was likely a tenth that of the Narnia film.)

Second, if Variety's quote from Walden co-head Cary Granat is accurate, Walden isn't even planning to start production on the movie until late this year at the earliest—so Prince Caspian couldn't possibly hit theatres before late in 2007.

Could they really be thinking that the enthusiasm for Narnia would bear up under a two-year hiatus?

MORE HERE
Variety, 09.01.06

January HJ Feature

The January Hollywood Jesus Narnia Feature Article has been posted: "Blockbusted? Ask William Moseley's Fans." It's a look at the puzzling paradox of the enormous, yet coporately dissapointing, boxoffice take of The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe—and at the wild success the film seems to be with girls between 8 and 16.

Here's a snip:

Given that another $200+ million would be necessary to produce and market the proposed Prince Caspian, this would consume the lion’s share of the boxoffice profits from the first film—leaving merchandising rights and video sales as the only real source of profit for the film’s producers.

Ultimately, that’s got to be pretty disappointing to Disney, considering the boxoffice potential for Andrew Adamson’s third directorial feature. Profit margins on both Shrek and Shrek 2 were much higher. Lion King-type figures are not in the cards.

Does that mean Prince Caspian is dead?

Not at all. Even before The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe debuted, the studios were talking to Adamson and his child stars about returning for Prince Caspian, and in the last couple of weeks rumors—but rumors only—have surfaced that deals have now in fact been inked, and the project greenlighted.

These rumors are likely true.

Disney, we must remember, is not at the helm of this franchise. Walden Media is... Adamson delivered a film that educators, pastors, librarians and booksellers love. It’s turned a profit, and has spawned additional millions in book sales.

What’s more, it has captured the fancy of schoolgirls, thanks to the performance of William Mosely as Peter Pevensie.

By far, the most vocal response to this film that Hollywood Jesus has received has come from girls aged eight to sixteen. The last time I saw anything like this was in 2003, with the release of another Walden Media film: Holes...

To read the full story, click on the link above.

Kong vs. Aslan

Over the last several weeks, the big questions seems to have been: Which will emerge as the Big Winner at the boxoffice in December—King Kong or The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe?

And now the question seems to be: Why the heck are we so obsessed with WINNING?

As the last week has played out, it appears to be one of those both/and things rather than the typical (and more desirable?) either/or scenario. Both movies seem to have found an audience, and they appear to be largely different. The overall take is being split pretty evenly.

Naturally, each studio would have preferred that one of the two movies had dominated, since each was looking for a blockbuster—and it now appears that neither will be. Both will be solid earners, but—at least in the US—neither will reap the kind of profits that studios are looking for from such properties.

International trends are still the wild cards in the equation, though, so trends could change; but if the past performance trends of similar films are any indicator, that's increasingly unlikely.

What's particularly interesting is that early indicators show that the latest Potter installment will be more sucessful than either of these films, and that the Narnia film's chances are highly tied to its domestic success.

MORE HERE and HERE and HERE
Box Office Prophet, The Numbers, Box Office Mojo